What is Arkansas’ Path to Bowl Eligibility?

Despite a second-half collapse that led to the Arkansas Razorbacks falling 39-31 in overtime against No. 16 Oklahoma State, the Hogs have gained some respect from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which rates each college football team and predicts outcomes. Even with the frustrating loss, the Hogs’ path to a bowl game appears somewhat clear after two weeks of games.

[RELATED: Hogs are good, but not good enough to win sloppy]

Coming into the season, the ESPN FPI had the Hogs with a win probability greater than 50% in only three of their games this season, none of which were SEC games. The model now has Arkansas ‘expected’ to win four of its 10 remaining games, which would be good for a 5-7 record at the end of the season, and the Razorbacks are projected to be in several close contests down the stretch.

After losing on the road to the Cowboys, who are rated as the No. 27 team in the country by the ESPN FPI, the Hogs jumped up to No. 23 in the model’s rankings. That increase says a lot about how tough the Week 2 result was, but it also speaks to the fact that the Razorbacks are viewed as a much-improved team, even on paper.

According to the ESPN FPI, the Hogs have a 92.8% chance to get back on track with a win against UAB in Week 3 at home. After that, Arkansas will hit the road for two games that are essentially toss-ups at Auburn (44.4% win probability) and against Texas A&M (46.2%) in Arlington. If the Razorbacks want to play postseason ball, a win is almost mandatory in this two-game stretch.

The Hogs will then return home for a two-game stretch against Tennessee, the No. 7 team in the country who has a 77.2% chance to beat Arkansas in Fayetteville according to the model, and LSU, who the ESPN analytics are favoring the Hogs against more each week.

Arkansas is ‘expected’ to beat Mississippi State on the road with a 54.4% win probability following the Bulldogs’ 30-23 loss against Arizona State. After that, the Hogs have two home games against Ole Miss and Texas, two of the top five teams in the country. Below is a look at the Hogs’ remaining schedule in its entirety and how the ESPN FPI views the likelihood of an Arkansas win.

Week 3 – vs. UAB – 92.8%
Week 4 – at Auburn – 44.4%
Week 5 – vs. Texas A&M* – 46.2%
Week 6 – vs. No. 7 Tennessee – 22.8%
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – vs. No. 16 LSU – 57.5%
Week 9 – at Mississippi St. – 54.4%
Week 10 – vs. No. 5 Ole Miss – 27.1%
Week 11 – BYE
Week 12 – vs. No. 2 Texas – 15.8%
Week 13 – vs. Louisiana Tech – 94.4%
Week 14 – at No. 6 Missouri – 26.3%

The Razorbacks’ first home game of the season is set to take place this Saturday at 3:15 p.m. (CT) against the UAB Blazers. The game will be televised on SEC Network and streamed via the ESPN App.